* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022012 05/22/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 47 53 63 71 69 65 57 47 41 37 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 47 53 63 71 69 65 57 47 41 37 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 43 47 56 63 65 63 57 52 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 15 12 6 12 6 7 16 5 11 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 2 0 5 7 4 15 4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 44 58 63 84 91 106 216 220 195 113 127 146 136 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 159 157 150 145 143 140 138 136 134 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.0 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 68 69 67 64 60 60 59 59 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 17 19 19 20 23 21 19 14 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 21 23 28 29 29 36 42 27 42 38 54 34 35 200 MB DIV 109 105 115 146 152 115 95 46 36 9 -37 -26 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 1 -1 -5 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 790 772 755 725 692 624 514 392 261 152 48 19 23 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.3 13.4 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.2 18.0 18.2 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.4 104.1 104.8 105.4 106.2 106.1 105.6 104.8 104.2 103.7 103.5 103.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 59 74 76 69 58 45 25 15 14 10 8 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 8. 1. -6. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 18. 28. 36. 34. 30. 22. 12. 6. 2. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 TWO 05/22/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 TWO 05/22/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##