* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012012 05/22/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 40 42 40 34 29 23 19 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 40 42 40 34 29 23 19 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 29 30 31 32 34 35 DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 49 48 48 44 51 12 10 11 15 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -4 -8 -12 -13 -1 5 1 10 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 242 251 252 254 258 286 353 20 336 339 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 22.9 22.5 22.6 22.5 19.9 18.6 14.0 10.7 7.2 6.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 93 91 92 91 81 77 69 67 65 65 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 86 83 82 82 82 74 71 66 65 64 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -55.9 -56.5 -56.8 -56.6 -58.1 -59.0 -60.2 -59.5 -59.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 58 59 60 61 49 41 37 42 47 47 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 67 48 31 32 3 -45 -99 -86 -91 -101 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 52 61 52 56 23 -8 -42 -36 -46 -26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 3 13 -10 -10 2 -16 -16 -23 41 70 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 295 300 354 464 541 494 401 390 367 231 429 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.6 34.6 35.6 36.6 38.7 40.5 42.0 43.5 44.9 46.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.7 73.5 72.2 70.8 69.3 66.1 62.8 59.2 55.5 51.6 47.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 16 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 27. 31. 32. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 12. 10. 4. -1. -7. -11. -13. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012 ALBERTO 05/22/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012 ALBERTO 05/22/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012 ALBERTO 05/22/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)