* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/22/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 53 61 66 65 61 51 44 37 35 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 53 61 66 65 61 51 44 37 35 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 48 55 60 60 57 53 50 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 8 6 10 9 7 7 11 15 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 3 -3 8 8 11 4 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 83 82 104 109 150 157 199 176 203 136 137 119 127 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 156 152 147 143 140 138 136 134 132 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -51.5 -50.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 7 9 7 9 8 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 67 68 63 62 59 59 57 60 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 17 18 18 16 10 8 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 25 24 24 17 25 25 24 30 27 22 22 200 MB DIV 90 99 113 113 127 102 45 44 -4 4 5 15 -6 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -6 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 773 750 717 688 667 608 490 369 253 168 114 91 68 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.8 14.9 15.9 16.7 17.3 17.7 17.9 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.3 105.0 105.6 106.1 106.6 106.3 105.8 105.1 104.6 104.3 104.2 104.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 75 74 65 58 54 40 27 18 19 14 12 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 3. -5. -8. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 26. 31. 30. 26. 16. 9. 2. 0. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/22/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/22/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##