* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/22/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 50 54 60 58 54 42 35 31 29 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 50 54 60 58 54 42 35 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 45 48 49 47 44 40 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 3 2 3 8 7 12 15 18 14 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 6 2 -1 -2 8 4 8 3 0 6 0 SHEAR DIR 90 111 185 133 145 175 169 170 161 159 195 202 51 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 155 151 147 144 141 138 134 131 130 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 67 63 59 57 55 49 51 52 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 15 18 16 15 9 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 23 22 22 21 18 23 8 19 18 28 14 17 1 200 MB DIV 103 101 109 111 106 66 38 22 31 -26 -17 -15 0 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 -4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 726 703 691 672 654 573 462 352 216 127 63 78 147 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.4 15.3 16.2 17.3 18.0 18.4 18.4 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.3 106.0 106.5 106.9 106.9 106.4 105.9 105.3 104.9 104.4 104.7 105.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 5 3 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 70 60 57 54 46 35 23 17 11 6 10 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 7. 5. 3. -5. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 25. 23. 19. 7. 0. -4. -6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/22/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/22/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##