* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/23/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 44 45 47 48 44 35 28 23 20 19 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 44 45 47 48 44 35 28 23 20 19 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 39 39 39 36 33 30 28 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 4 4 9 9 10 11 21 18 10 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 0 4 8 8 0 -2 4 2 5 SHEAR DIR 153 168 130 163 188 225 173 175 159 188 193 200 133 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 149 146 143 139 136 132 129 126 126 127 126 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 7 9 7 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 66 64 55 57 52 54 48 46 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 16 13 14 15 13 9 7 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 27 20 24 23 21 16 19 18 8 4 1 200 MB DIV 110 117 99 79 71 25 56 0 22 5 -1 -4 16 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 661 652 646 614 587 497 363 226 112 54 39 83 148 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.3 16.3 17.4 18.3 18.8 18.9 18.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.0 106.6 106.9 107.1 107.0 106.3 105.7 105.2 105.0 104.9 105.2 105.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 4 2 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 51 49 42 33 27 20 12 8 5 6 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. 1. -1. -7. -9. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 9. 0. -7. -12. -15. -16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/23/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/23/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##