* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/23/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 45 45 39 32 26 23 20 20 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 45 45 39 32 26 23 20 20 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 37 37 36 33 31 29 27 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 5 12 11 11 13 10 11 10 5 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -3 0 4 7 7 2 0 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 182 191 195 193 200 224 211 183 199 207 192 199 116 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 145 143 141 136 132 128 125 121 122 123 121 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 65 59 58 56 58 51 48 49 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 16 16 13 9 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 29 22 24 28 8 20 15 25 1 14 -9 3 200 MB DIV 108 98 80 83 74 33 52 28 10 -4 -16 -2 0 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 654 636 621 590 551 433 280 157 84 79 100 145 184 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.9 17.0 18.0 18.8 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.8 107.1 107.2 107.3 106.9 106.0 105.5 105.5 105.6 105.7 106.0 106.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 0 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 47 38 30 26 22 14 9 6 4 3 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 10. 4. -3. -9. -12. -15. -15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/23/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/23/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##