* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/23/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 71 72 73 68 54 44 37 30 24 19 V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 71 72 73 68 54 44 37 30 24 19 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 68 72 73 71 65 57 50 44 39 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 6 8 6 6 12 16 17 9 8 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 4 8 10 4 2 5 5 4 3 SHEAR DIR 164 151 185 204 223 190 176 168 180 197 180 161 166 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 143 141 140 136 130 124 121 119 119 120 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 6 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 59 57 56 55 55 48 41 41 41 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 15 14 7 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 27 23 25 28 24 17 4 0 1 7 5 3 3 200 MB DIV 98 87 84 74 34 48 54 26 23 0 -11 1 16 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -4 0 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 712 696 675 636 598 474 327 237 214 231 285 315 346 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.7 16.9 17.7 18.1 18.1 17.8 17.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.7 108.0 108.0 108.0 107.3 106.7 106.4 106.5 106.7 107.1 107.3 107.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 5 6 5 3 1 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 38 26 16 14 13 12 6 6 3 1 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 16. 17. 18. 13. -1. -10. -18. -25. -31. -36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/23/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/23/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##