* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/23/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 64 65 64 56 44 33 28 23 20 15 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 64 65 64 56 44 33 28 23 20 15 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 63 62 59 53 47 41 36 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 7 7 2 8 12 18 12 3 7 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 2 9 15 8 4 5 10 4 7 8 SHEAR DIR 187 165 191 249 180 150 148 165 184 177 70 87 128 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 141 139 134 128 124 122 125 128 129 126 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 7 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 61 59 57 56 51 47 46 47 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 18 18 17 13 8 5 5 2 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 21 27 22 10 19 6 3 -1 6 -4 8 -13 200 MB DIV 96 97 74 38 49 42 26 -1 13 -4 -1 4 10 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 696 679 661 604 547 404 288 229 214 231 291 360 464 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.1 16.2 17.2 17.8 17.9 17.7 17.1 16.9 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 107.9 108.1 107.9 107.6 106.9 106.5 106.4 106.3 106.3 106.4 107.2 108.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 6 4 2 1 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 13 15 15 9 7 6 7 8 8 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -15. -15. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 1. -11. -22. -27. -32. -35. -40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/23/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/23/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##