* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/24/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 66 67 61 48 35 27 21 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 66 67 61 48 35 27 21 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 62 61 56 49 43 38 33 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 9 1 10 9 15 14 8 4 10 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 4 9 10 12 3 3 6 9 9 7 5 SHEAR DIR 184 193 229 184 150 171 153 162 147 114 86 94 107 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 139 136 130 125 122 124 124 123 123 122 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 9 7 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 61 59 58 58 59 52 48 40 43 38 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 20 19 20 17 10 5 4 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 25 14 23 14 14 10 10 2 0 1 -9 200 MB DIV 96 67 57 79 99 1 24 -4 -3 -12 10 -1 11 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 664 615 566 495 423 276 169 137 145 191 237 322 420 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.0 17.2 18.1 18.4 18.3 18.0 17.8 17.5 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 107.7 107.6 107.3 106.9 106.3 105.9 105.8 105.8 106.1 106.5 107.3 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 6 3 1 1 2 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 16 14 11 9 11 10 11 9 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -9. -16. -17. -19. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 1. -12. -25. -33. -39. -44. -49. -53. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/24/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/24/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##