* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/24/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 85 83 68 49 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 85 83 68 49 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 82 80 76 65 55 46 39 34 29 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 5 9 15 18 11 3 2 9 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 5 11 13 9 7 2 11 12 8 3 1 SHEAR DIR 187 229 227 201 216 164 181 194 199 61 98 109 111 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 137 135 132 126 124 123 123 122 121 117 115 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 56 58 56 50 48 45 43 41 42 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 21 20 20 13 7 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 9 23 26 14 18 3 15 -5 11 -10 -1 200 MB DIV 65 72 90 98 58 38 -18 -6 -4 -4 0 6 -9 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 -6 -4 -1 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 586 532 478 394 310 161 99 61 64 111 218 274 300 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.3 16.9 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.1 18.9 18.3 18.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 107.4 107.2 106.8 106.4 105.9 105.6 105.4 105.5 105.9 106.7 107.2 107.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 7 5 2 1 1 3 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 16 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -5. -14. -20. -20. -20. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 10. 8. -7. -26. -42. -49. -55. -62. -68. -72. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/24/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/24/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##