* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 92 82 72 56 44 36 29 24 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 99 92 82 72 47 35 30 28 23 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 99 93 86 78 50 36 31 31 27 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 14 10 10 8 3 10 9 11 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 15 15 10 2 6 9 6 1 3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 189 192 191 192 207 248 274 136 105 110 94 103 110 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 130 128 128 126 124 125 124 122 124 124 123 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 6 10 7 10 7 10 7 9 700-500 MB RH 58 56 58 51 51 43 37 36 37 40 40 40 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 12 10 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 23 22 8 15 23 8 14 3 2 3 0 0 200 MB DIV 90 33 -2 25 34 2 -14 -4 5 0 -7 -6 -19 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -9 -6 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 LAND (KM) 304 223 142 81 23 -53 -43 -26 64 77 25 21 10 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.3 20.5 20.0 19.1 18.9 19.3 19.5 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 105.8 105.4 105.3 105.1 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.5 105.5 105.2 105.3 105.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 3 1 4 3 1 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 16 16 13 0 0 3 14 15 12 9 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -21. -28. -33. -38. -42. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -8. -18. -28. -44. -56. -64. -71. -76. -82. -86. -89. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/25/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/25/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##