* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/25/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 85 79 73 62 53 45 39 34 29 25 21 V (KT) LAND 95 92 85 79 62 43 34 31 28 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 91 86 79 63 43 34 30 31 28 26 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 9 10 6 5 3 8 8 12 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 12 9 7 0 7 6 1 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 201 191 199 179 190 218 139 136 78 95 86 100 97 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 129 128 127 124 123 125 125 123 123 124 121 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 10 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 54 59 52 50 48 44 39 37 41 40 44 39 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 19 5 18 33 6 18 0 14 -7 9 -11 11 200 MB DIV 37 -3 20 32 20 6 -11 -4 -19 3 -18 -15 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -10 -8 -8 -4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 LAND (KM) 235 157 78 19 -25 -56 -26 -1 38 54 45 61 92 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.0 19.6 19.1 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.0 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.1 105.2 105.2 105.2 105.4 105.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 4 1 2 2 2 0 0 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 17 13 6 5 3 6 14 16 15 15 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -10. -16. -22. -33. -42. -50. -56. -61. -66. -70. -74. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/25/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/25/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##