* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 78 72 67 59 50 44 39 33 27 23 21 V (KT) LAND 90 85 78 63 54 41 38 32 27 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 78 64 54 41 40 36 32 30 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 12 12 9 3 4 5 7 10 9 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 12 9 6 4 8 8 5 0 2 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 213 200 174 208 238 184 193 91 107 90 91 96 93 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 125 124 124 123 122 122 122 121 120 117 114 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 6 9 7 10 7 9 7 8 5 700-500 MB RH 58 52 51 48 48 43 40 38 42 43 44 40 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 2 19 29 20 10 8 2 1 0 -4 0 5 200 MB DIV -3 26 44 12 8 -14 -7 -4 -6 -5 -10 -14 -8 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -12 -3 -1 1 0 1 0 0 2 5 8 LAND (KM) 152 80 21 -5 -32 -9 7 29 47 71 116 180 247 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.8 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.0 20.0 19.8 19.5 19.4 19.1 18.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 105.5 105.3 105.2 105.1 105.3 105.5 105.6 105.6 105.8 106.1 106.7 107.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 10 4 3 1 4 7 10 10 10 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -23. -28. -32. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -18. -23. -31. -40. -46. -51. -57. -63. -67. -69. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/25/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##