* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/25/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 48 42 37 33 29 26 26 23 20 17 16 V (KT) LAND 65 56 48 38 38 34 30 28 27 25 21 19 17 V (KT) LGE mod 65 55 48 39 40 34 30 27 24 22 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 9 8 9 8 5 4 6 4 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 11 6 4 3 6 7 8 7 6 7 2 5 SHEAR DIR 188 189 216 219 214 189 170 164 173 117 98 89 79 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.3 24.9 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 122 122 121 121 120 118 115 113 109 105 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 8 7 9 7 9 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 49 46 43 39 31 33 37 38 40 37 36 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 5 3 3 1 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 14 24 22 9 14 0 13 -8 7 -10 7 -1 200 MB DIV 22 27 -4 -6 1 -6 -4 -8 2 -4 -16 -18 -10 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 5 LAND (KM) 77 39 3 2 1 18 52 76 114 157 215 297 375 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.1 19.7 19.6 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.5 105.7 105.8 106.0 106.3 106.8 107.4 108.3 109.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 5 3 3 4 8 9 7 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. -8. -7. -7. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -23. -28. -32. -36. -39. -39. -42. -45. -48. -49. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/25/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/25/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##