* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022012 05/26/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 26 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 15 17 13 6 9 4 2 9 10 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 0 2 4 8 6 8 8 7 10 N/A SHEAR DIR 209 213 205 188 190 209 180 193 153 118 118 115 N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.6 26.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 120 120 121 120 119 116 117 117 117 124 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 9 7 9 7 8 7 7 5 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 39 35 35 34 33 38 38 43 40 37 38 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 10 1 5 12 -5 10 -9 5 -10 14 9 N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -1 2 -4 -14 -1 0 13 10 0 -4 -5 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 N/A LAND (KM) 18 19 21 25 29 68 120 182 255 343 440 573 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.0 19.3 19.0 18.4 18.1 17.8 16.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.7 105.8 105.8 105.9 105.9 106.2 106.3 106.8 107.2 108.0 108.9 109.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 5 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 3 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -12. -12. -12. -9. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -17. -20. -25. -30. -33. -33. -33. -35. -35. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022012 BUD 05/26/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022012 BUD 05/26/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##