* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/26/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 42 40 36 34 31 32 33 37 38 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 42 40 31 28 27 27 31 35 36 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 42 43 45 34 29 27 27 32 37 40 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 9 5 8 9 13 19 18 18 9 14 18 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 2 2 3 -1 -1 -4 -4 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 254 242 289 349 12 1 7 358 351 319 270 239 240 SST (C) 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.3 25.3 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.4 23.9 24.3 24.4 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 100 103 106 107 107 102 100 98 97 96 100 101 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 88 91 93 93 88 86 82 83 84 88 89 84 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -53.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.9 -53.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 7 6 6 10 7 11 8 11 6 7 3 700-500 MB RH 50 46 46 42 45 44 43 49 50 61 60 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 19 19 16 14 12 11 11 13 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -7 -14 -17 -9 -16 -49 -38 -46 -10 -25 2 -10 200 MB DIV -2 -12 -9 0 5 -14 -27 14 5 6 9 58 17 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -4 -7 3 -6 -5 1 2 13 2 3 -3 LAND (KM) 298 305 295 273 196 34 -98 -101 -123 -34 91 119 149 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 31.5 31.1 30.8 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.6 30.8 31.4 32.1 33.4 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.7 77.3 78.3 79.3 81.0 82.4 83.1 83.0 81.7 79.4 76.9 74.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 8 6 5 2 4 8 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 8 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -8. -7. -3. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/26/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/26/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/26/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)