* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/26/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 39 38 34 30 29 31 32 34 31 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 39 38 30 28 27 32 33 34 32 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 42 42 43 33 29 27 32 35 39 42 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 12 18 12 22 19 19 11 10 12 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 3 1 -1 -5 -1 -2 -1 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 262 314 332 355 356 345 349 341 332 269 252 218 217 SST (C) 24.7 25.2 25.4 25.3 25.2 24.6 24.4 24.2 23.9 24.0 24.7 23.3 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 101 106 107 107 106 100 97 96 95 98 104 96 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 91 93 92 91 86 82 81 82 85 91 86 81 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.3 -53.8 -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -53.4 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 8 7 9 7 9 7 7 4 2 700-500 MB RH 50 45 44 43 45 43 47 51 59 60 58 54 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 19 16 16 14 12 13 14 14 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -15 -22 -21 -13 -43 -41 -52 -13 -20 -3 -11 4 200 MB DIV -5 -18 5 11 -38 -4 -17 7 18 11 33 35 33 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -9 -3 -2 -10 0 4 7 5 4 -9 -27 LAND (KM) 310 305 296 246 158 18 -73 -76 -21 62 128 138 326 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.2 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.5 30.6 31.0 31.5 32.2 33.0 34.8 37.3 LONG(DEG W) 76.3 77.1 77.9 78.8 79.7 81.2 82.2 82.3 81.5 79.8 77.3 74.6 71.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 5 3 3 6 10 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 12 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/26/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/26/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/26/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)