* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/27/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 46 41 36 31 33 35 37 35 33 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 46 36 30 28 31 33 35 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 49 49 40 32 28 31 34 39 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 15 11 13 23 19 15 7 12 14 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 1 1 0 -3 -3 -4 0 -2 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 301 333 340 352 335 3 350 348 311 253 216 221 224 SST (C) 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.3 24.6 24.2 24.1 23.9 24.3 23.1 22.9 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 104 106 108 108 107 99 95 95 96 102 95 94 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 91 93 94 92 85 80 81 84 91 86 84 72 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.3 -53.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -53.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 9 7 10 7 10 7 6 1 1 700-500 MB RH 46 47 45 47 48 44 53 57 62 58 53 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 20 18 18 15 12 11 12 13 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -20 -20 -11 -12 -54 -45 -52 -14 -34 -5 9 33 200 MB DIV -27 -1 6 -36 -8 -31 0 -4 30 17 59 15 23 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -2 -4 -3 -6 2 3 9 -4 -7 -42 -45 LAND (KM) 330 312 291 187 84 -49 -58 -48 4 57 85 355 404 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.4 30.9 31.1 31.5 32.7 34.9 36.9 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 76.9 77.6 78.3 79.4 80.4 81.9 82.1 82.0 81.2 79.0 75.2 71.5 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 8 4 2 3 8 15 18 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -8. -8. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -9. -14. -12. -10. -8. -10. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/27/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/27/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/27/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)