* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/27/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 46 43 38 36 39 40 41 40 37 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 38 30 28 27 27 29 30 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 49 40 31 28 27 27 32 37 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 12 11 21 17 17 8 13 17 27 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 0 -1 -6 -4 -3 0 6 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 328 349 5 348 341 354 336 325 244 222 211 222 245 SST (C) 25.4 25.2 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.6 24.0 22.7 20.3 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 108 106 105 103 100 97 95 94 95 100 94 84 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 92 92 89 86 82 81 82 84 90 85 78 76 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -54.4 -54.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -53.1 -53.7 -54.5 -54.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 9 9 7 9 7 9 7 7 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 45 43 45 45 42 47 52 60 59 52 44 45 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 17 18 15 14 12 11 13 13 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -27 -20 -23 -52 -47 -60 -17 -28 11 1 20 46 200 MB DIV 9 8 -26 -17 -5 -8 13 18 37 38 32 53 -19 700-850 TADV -8 0 -3 -4 -8 0 4 5 0 26 -32 -26 -33 LAND (KM) 277 219 121 30 -60 -111 -95 -56 -4 12 199 412 416 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 30.6 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.6 31.1 31.7 32.6 34.1 36.2 38.2 40.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.1 79.1 80.1 81.1 82.0 82.6 82.5 81.8 80.4 77.7 73.6 68.8 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 5 2 3 6 10 17 21 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 5 15 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -9. -6. -5. -4. -5. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/27/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/27/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/27/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)