* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/27/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 43 41 38 35 34 37 37 37 36 33 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 38 33 29 27 30 33 34 33 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 40 35 29 28 31 34 39 43 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 10 21 22 19 16 6 10 19 24 34 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 0 0 6 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 351 14 349 340 360 354 348 307 241 212 235 229 264 SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.0 23.7 24.3 23.2 22.9 21.2 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 108 107 104 102 99 97 95 96 101 96 95 88 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 93 90 87 84 82 82 84 89 86 87 82 75 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.4 -54.1 -53.7 -53.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.9 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 7 10 7 10 5 6 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 45 44 52 57 65 60 51 45 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 17 16 14 12 13 11 12 11 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -17 -24 -55 -66 -48 -47 -14 -22 4 6 30 6 200 MB DIV 3 -30 -19 -13 -16 2 5 34 12 51 17 8 21 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -8 -7 0 6 10 0 11 -33 -45 -6 LAND (KM) 232 136 39 -18 -77 -81 -43 21 50 109 456 546 529 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.7 31.2 32.1 33.4 34.9 36.6 38.6 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 78.9 79.9 80.9 81.6 82.2 82.3 81.9 80.6 78.4 74.9 70.4 64.9 58.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 3 2 5 9 14 18 22 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -8. -8. -8. -9. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/27/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/27/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/27/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)