* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/27/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 55 54 50 46 47 49 48 44 40 33 V (KT) LAND 55 57 47 40 34 29 28 32 33 33 29 25 17 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 51 41 35 29 28 33 37 42 46 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 19 21 16 19 10 11 15 19 23 36 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -5 -4 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -3 6 SHEAR DIR 8 347 342 355 357 342 330 266 252 240 249 268 277 SST (C) 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.4 23.9 24.2 23.9 23.2 20.9 20.6 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 107 106 103 101 100 97 96 100 100 96 87 87 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 91 89 86 85 83 84 89 89 87 80 81 73 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.6 -53.6 -54.4 -54.9 -54.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 7 10 8 9 7 7 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 44 44 46 50 62 64 62 53 46 46 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 15 14 13 12 10 12 13 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -12 -39 -55 -42 -59 -18 -29 -14 -19 10 37 29 200 MB DIV -24 -29 -9 -18 -14 27 22 34 49 20 27 -22 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -9 -6 0 4 3 2 8 -9 0 -30 11 LAND (KM) 131 50 -30 -74 -101 -107 -34 52 93 343 508 542 558 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.5 34.0 35.7 37.7 39.7 41.7 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 80.8 81.6 82.1 82.6 82.6 81.7 79.4 76.2 72.1 67.5 61.4 54.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 3 3 8 13 17 20 23 27 28 HEAT CONTENT 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -1. -5. -9. -8. -6. -7. -11. -15. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/27/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/27/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/27/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)