* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/28/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 58 56 53 48 45 44 44 41 37 33 28 V (KT) LAND 60 60 46 38 33 29 28 30 29 26 23 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 48 39 33 29 27 34 38 43 46 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 18 22 13 16 17 7 14 17 20 34 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -5 2 -1 4 -4 -4 8 9 SHEAR DIR 338 335 357 356 334 343 273 239 221 261 256 270 271 SST (C) 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.1 23.5 24.4 23.4 22.8 21.1 20.4 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 104 102 99 99 98 97 95 102 97 95 88 85 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 87 85 84 83 84 84 90 87 87 81 78 75 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.1 -51.4 -52.3 -52.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.9 -54.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 10 10 7 9 5 6 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 45 48 54 61 59 57 52 48 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 15 13 13 13 12 12 12 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -48 -66 -52 -52 -53 -14 -34 -13 3 43 41 47 200 MB DIV -22 -11 -22 -14 -11 2 33 11 45 20 1 -3 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -8 0 0 7 11 1 0 -11 -31 -41 -28 LAND (KM) 68 8 -51 -83 -115 -88 -7 56 141 483 526 612 724 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 31.2 32.3 33.4 34.6 36.4 38.8 40.0 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 81.3 81.9 82.3 82.6 82.4 80.8 78.2 74.7 70.2 64.7 58.7 52.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 3 2 6 10 14 18 23 24 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -16. -16. -19. -23. -27. -32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/28/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/28/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/28/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)