* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/28/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 30 31 33 35 38 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 16 16 20 17 6 14 22 23 23 25 44 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -3 -5 2 -3 2 -2 1 -1 8 14 SHEAR DIR 354 1 342 333 352 277 252 227 240 236 264 275 275 SST (C) 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.6 24.3 23.7 24.4 23.6 23.3 22.5 22.7 16.7 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 101 99 98 96 102 98 97 94 97 78 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 85 85 84 84 84 91 88 88 87 90 75 74 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -52.2 -52.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -53.4 -52.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 7 7 9 6 6 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 41 44 46 52 63 60 56 48 43 42 50 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 10 12 11 10 9 9 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -53 -53 -65 -50 -18 -34 -6 -2 28 73 75 122 200 MB DIV -22 -16 0 19 -14 30 1 43 15 16 1 0 19 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 2 4 12 0 3 -10 -34 -20 -26 35 LAND (KM) -106 -121 -130 -115 -109 -14 50 101 430 614 721 632 919 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.6 30.8 31.2 31.5 32.2 33.4 34.9 36.4 37.8 39.1 41.4 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 82.5 82.7 82.9 82.7 82.5 81.0 78.4 75.0 70.9 65.3 58.2 50.2 41.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 4 5 10 14 17 21 26 31 33 34 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 0. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -17. -19. -20. -18. -16. -14. -10. -5. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -20. -16. -13. -9. -4. -2. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/28/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/28/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/28/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)