* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/29/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 27 31 33 32 36 41 42 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 30 33 37 40 38 42 47 48 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 29 30 31 32 33 35 36 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 8 7 10 16 24 20 28 33 30 26 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 5 0 5 0 2 0 7 5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 339 356 355 280 267 239 233 245 275 263 244 212 211 SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.9 24.5 23.7 22.6 23.0 22.5 18.7 18.2 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 103 101 99 97 98 103 99 93 96 95 81 79 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 86 86 85 86 91 89 85 88 88 76 74 71 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 7 7 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 49 56 60 59 52 50 45 44 42 48 53 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 12 14 14 16 17 16 22 29 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -45 -17 -17 -24 -3 -1 4 57 122 159 198 217 200 MB DIV 17 6 15 20 25 41 3 26 -24 -6 -1 19 33 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 10 1 3 -11 -3 -7 -15 -54 -33 -1 LAND (KM) -100 -133 -96 -26 19 52 180 541 634 732 740 945 1283 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.1 31.4 31.9 32.4 33.6 35.1 36.5 37.9 39.2 40.4 41.7 43.1 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 82.9 82.4 81.4 80.3 77.7 74.0 69.4 64.0 57.5 50.1 43.5 37.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 8 10 12 15 19 21 24 28 27 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 8. 12. 15. 16. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 10. 8. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 7. 13. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 8. 7. 11. 16. 17. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/29/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/29/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/29/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)