* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/29/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 28 31 34 34 33 40 37 33 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 30 33 36 36 35 41 39 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 30 31 32 33 34 35 34 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 7 7 13 12 22 26 27 33 46 44 30 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 4 0 0 7 0 1 7 9 6 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 356 348 286 250 255 226 244 247 280 271 255 250 204 SST (C) 24.6 24.1 23.8 23.8 24.1 23.5 23.4 21.4 22.9 22.4 19.8 16.0 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 100 97 96 97 100 97 97 87 94 91 81 72 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 84 84 85 88 87 88 80 85 82 74 68 68 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -49.8 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 7 6 7 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 55 59 59 58 54 43 39 38 30 32 34 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 14 13 14 16 16 17 29 31 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -19 -15 -27 -20 7 7 30 110 170 191 194 203 200 MB DIV -5 23 32 20 16 27 5 3 0 -18 -11 -16 -9 700-850 TADV 0 1 12 6 0 10 -16 -14 -17 -19 -13 -2 -3 LAND (KM) -146 -93 -43 2 18 42 348 521 613 702 688 621 706 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.7 32.0 32.6 33.1 34.6 36.5 37.7 38.5 39.4 40.5 41.7 43.1 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 82.3 81.5 80.4 79.2 76.1 71.9 67.2 62.4 57.8 53.5 49.6 45.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 11 13 17 19 20 19 18 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 10. 7. 3. -3. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 12. 13. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 8. 15. 12. 8. 5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/29/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/29/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/29/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)