* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/29/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 28 30 30 28 28 26 25 24 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 30 33 33 31 31 28 27 26 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 29 30 30 30 31 30 28 29 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 14 15 19 24 21 30 48 57 32 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 2 6 1 0 -2 4 12 9 4 2 SHEAR DIR 322 255 254 250 234 233 238 266 273 286 286 252 124 SST (C) 24.2 23.8 23.7 24.0 24.2 23.3 22.8 22.3 19.4 14.1 7.6 6.5 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 98 97 96 99 101 97 95 92 81 71 66 65 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 85 85 87 89 87 86 83 75 68 65 64 65 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.7 -51.4 -49.5 -47.8 -45.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 6 6 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 57 56 55 52 46 40 40 36 34 41 48 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 14 15 15 16 14 12 17 24 30 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -11 -18 -18 2 0 4 54 90 139 127 240 276 200 MB DIV 10 1 15 22 42 13 42 -16 -12 -24 -25 1 5 700-850 TADV 1 11 7 0 0 -3 -1 -5 -29 -28 0 -6 1 LAND (KM) -143 -65 -7 0 7 122 500 527 475 422 276 466 761 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.1 32.5 33.2 33.9 35.3 36.9 38.8 41.0 43.0 44.8 46.7 48.4 LONG(DEG W) 82.8 81.7 80.6 79.4 78.1 74.6 69.6 64.6 59.9 55.2 50.8 46.8 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 13 14 19 22 21 21 19 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 6. 1. -7. -11. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. 3. 9. 14. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/29/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/29/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/29/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)