* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * BERYL AL022012 05/30/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 32 33 32 34 35 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 31 33 35 36 35 37 38 40 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 28 29 29 30 30 32 33 34 35 37 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 14 18 19 23 22 19 37 33 29 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 3 4 -2 2 -1 5 8 6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 254 259 254 240 228 245 243 286 274 252 231 217 234 SST (C) 23.9 23.9 24.4 24.4 23.5 23.4 22.1 22.9 19.3 17.6 16.6 14.9 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 97 98 102 103 98 98 92 97 82 77 75 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 87 91 92 88 88 85 89 77 73 71 69 67 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -49.8 -49.3 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 6 6 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 55 54 46 44 48 48 47 43 44 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 15 15 16 15 15 12 19 24 29 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -13 -18 0 14 2 17 71 100 155 219 243 190 200 MB DIV 2 16 16 45 56 22 -2 3 -7 3 14 26 30 700-850 TADV 9 5 -3 0 4 -21 -16 -1 -46 -41 -18 -3 0 LAND (KM) -56 19 53 72 86 408 587 712 715 821 1130 1457 1489 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.4 32.9 33.8 34.7 36.4 37.7 38.9 40.3 41.7 43.2 45.0 47.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 80.3 78.9 77.2 75.4 71.2 65.9 59.3 52.1 45.5 39.6 34.2 29.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 15 17 18 20 24 28 27 24 22 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 12. 14. 15. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 7. 3. -2. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. 5. 9. 14. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/30/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/30/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/30/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)