* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022012 05/30/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 38 39 37 36 33 33 35 29 23 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 37 39 36 35 33 32 34 29 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 34 34 35 36 38 39 39 38 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 18 24 23 25 22 33 32 48 41 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -1 0 -3 1 9 17 12 15 13 SHEAR DIR 245 223 230 234 245 244 277 268 251 253 232 235 235 SST (C) 24.1 23.5 22.9 23.2 23.2 21.3 22.6 20.1 19.0 17.6 16.9 15.6 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 101 97 94 96 96 88 95 84 80 76 74 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 87 85 87 87 81 87 79 75 71 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.4 -51.6 -50.1 -50.0 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 48 43 42 47 52 50 39 32 30 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 17 18 17 17 14 15 18 25 35 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -3 10 10 11 22 57 96 139 185 226 122 76 200 MB DIV 10 36 35 -6 -6 7 -7 -1 -14 22 17 31 26 700-850 TADV -11 -14 -2 -27 -32 -21 -29 -50 -101 3 14 -10 -13 LAND (KM) 6 19 67 243 384 517 658 778 929 1192 1426 1695 1509 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.6 35.4 36.3 37.1 38.4 39.3 39.7 39.9 40.6 42.0 43.4 45.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 77.0 75.2 73.1 71.0 66.1 59.7 52.9 46.4 40.9 36.4 31.9 27.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 19 19 23 26 25 23 20 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 4. 0. -6. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. -23. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -2. 1. 6. 15. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 3. 3. 5. -1. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022012 BERYL 05/30/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022012 BERYL 05/30/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022012 BERYL 05/30/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)