* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/14/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 49 58 58 59 57 55 55 55 55 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 49 58 51 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 45 50 54 35 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 10 10 10 16 14 9 3 5 4 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 0 -3 0 1 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 138 162 164 171 162 129 111 157 12 344 257 246 223 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 165 164 163 163 163 159 156 154 151 149 148 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 80 77 77 78 78 79 80 79 80 75 66 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 13 14 9 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 24 20 29 35 41 56 61 70 66 78 88 131 200 MB DIV 105 80 68 90 94 136 94 101 82 38 44 24 46 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 0 -2 -7 -1 -3 -1 8 4 4 LAND (KM) 493 442 397 362 322 133 -10 -120 -187 -233 -248 -236 -206 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.6 11.3 12.2 13.0 14.5 15.9 17.0 17.9 18.7 19.2 19.6 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.5 94.0 94.6 95.1 96.1 96.8 97.4 98.1 98.9 99.7 100.5 101.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 32 33 38 41 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 2. -4. -5. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 23. 23. 24. 22. 20. 20. 20. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/14/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/14/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##