* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 54 58 63 64 63 63 62 66 69 70 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 54 58 63 64 51 46 45 48 52 53 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 53 57 64 70 57 50 55 61 67 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 12 12 11 18 15 9 12 17 14 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 1 1 0 1 -1 0 0 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 158 147 108 118 117 94 128 101 50 47 70 53 91 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 165 164 163 163 162 160 160 160 159 160 160 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -51.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 7 9 6 8 6 8 7 10 7 700-500 MB RH 79 77 79 77 77 80 81 83 85 83 78 73 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 14 15 15 12 9 6 6 7 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 21 27 27 33 34 15 28 27 63 100 112 200 MB DIV 84 70 76 93 118 95 115 109 65 87 84 121 129 700-850 TADV 1 2 -1 -1 0 -10 2 1 -2 1 2 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 448 406 380 360 277 116 23 -2 2 24 32 63 89 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.2 11.8 12.6 13.3 14.7 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.2 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.4 93.9 94.4 95.0 95.5 96.6 97.5 98.4 99.2 99.7 99.9 99.9 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 32 35 37 36 53 31 44 45 50 52 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -10. -9. -4. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 23. 24. 23. 23. 22. 26. 29. 30. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/14/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##