* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/14/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 64 66 72 68 66 63 61 60 59 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 64 66 60 45 45 42 39 38 38 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 55 60 64 74 71 51 52 57 61 65 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 7 6 10 8 8 13 16 7 7 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 1 1 4 0 2 1 2 4 6 1 SHEAR DIR 103 96 118 82 79 77 109 75 48 48 103 147 142 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 163 162 163 161 160 160 158 159 160 161 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 79 76 74 76 79 81 85 83 82 78 75 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 15 13 14 9 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 19 18 17 11 13 9 13 10 29 62 97 114 200 MB DIV 80 90 95 97 128 80 78 86 73 79 95 92 111 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 -4 3 14 11 10 12 LAND (KM) 382 359 344 266 178 60 -5 -6 3 16 18 48 87 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 12.1 12.7 13.4 14.1 15.3 16.1 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.3 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 93.9 94.4 94.9 95.5 96.1 97.1 98.1 99.0 99.7 100.0 99.8 99.8 100.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 4 2 0 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 35 37 35 47 46 44 24 53 40 54 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -8. -8. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 19. 21. 27. 23. 21. 18. 16. 15. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/14/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 33% is 10.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/14/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##