* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 70 75 78 76 74 70 66 64 61 60 V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 70 75 78 76 74 70 66 64 61 60 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 67 73 77 84 89 93 95 94 92 91 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 9 11 15 8 10 20 19 16 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 1 0 -3 1 2 2 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 101 116 115 109 89 99 86 44 46 58 98 104 104 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 162 162 162 162 161 161 160 161 160 158 158 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -51.8 -52.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 7 8 6 8 7 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 74 77 81 84 86 83 79 77 78 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 11 12 10 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 14 9 9 14 2 0 0 1 27 54 89 89 200 MB DIV 89 89 79 97 106 87 104 59 77 70 106 136 148 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -2 -2 -2 10 16 15 8 6 LAND (KM) 355 344 266 189 129 40 19 34 61 92 104 116 132 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.6 16.2 16.4 16.3 16.0 15.7 15.5 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.0 95.5 96.1 96.7 97.8 98.9 99.7 100.1 100.1 99.7 99.5 99.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 38 37 39 66 65 59 55 52 57 60 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 20. 23. 21. 19. 15. 11. 9. 7. 5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/15/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 5.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 39% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 39% is 11.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/15/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##