* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/15/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 68 71 72 72 72 70 66 65 63 61 57 V (KT) LAND 60 65 68 71 72 72 72 70 66 65 63 61 57 V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 71 75 79 84 88 90 90 89 89 89 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 12 14 12 10 15 19 10 4 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 3 4 -3 1 1 3 3 6 0 5 SHEAR DIR 132 100 110 80 91 99 49 26 36 105 140 179 182 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 163 163 161 160 160 159 159 159 159 159 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 76 80 83 85 83 81 76 74 71 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 11 13 10 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 13 18 17 8 8 14 28 62 99 121 134 200 MB DIV 88 95 80 78 111 89 64 64 81 105 72 150 134 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -10 -7 -5 -1 -2 0 12 12 7 5 LAND (KM) 343 259 178 118 63 23 26 32 51 51 32 32 41 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.6 96.1 96.7 97.3 98.3 99.3 99.9 100.1 100.1 99.9 99.9 100.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 37 40 55 68 62 53 55 55 53 53 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -1. -4. -9. -12. -12. -12. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/15/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/15/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##