* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/15/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 76 78 81 82 81 76 72 70 67 64 61 V (KT) LAND 65 70 76 78 81 82 81 76 72 70 67 64 61 V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 75 79 83 89 93 94 92 90 89 90 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 14 12 9 11 20 12 1 9 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 0 -1 1 0 2 10 3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 106 96 86 80 104 74 55 35 44 12 116 145 140 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 163 161 160 159 159 159 159 159 159 160 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.3 -51.8 -52.6 -51.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 8 7 9 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 78 75 79 78 82 83 85 84 79 73 73 72 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 12 9 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 10 17 17 13 6 14 15 36 58 86 102 91 200 MB DIV 73 77 81 95 87 83 64 59 82 118 104 136 108 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -6 -9 -2 -4 0 10 9 7 8 4 2 LAND (KM) 242 166 109 70 31 14 10 13 24 38 63 64 51 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.2 16.1 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.2 96.8 97.4 97.9 98.8 99.4 99.7 99.7 99.8 99.9 99.7 99.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 0 1 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 41 54 66 67 46 36 47 57 56 59 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 13. 16. 17. 16. 11. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/15/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 30% is 9.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/15/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##