* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/15/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 85 89 89 89 85 80 76 74 71 67 64 V (KT) LAND 75 81 85 77 63 44 36 34 30 29 25 22 19 V (KT) LGE mod 75 81 86 90 66 45 36 40 42 46 49 54 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 14 11 12 10 19 20 8 7 16 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 2 1 -3 0 -2 3 6 7 1 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 121 97 103 105 116 35 29 61 132 121 135 168 136 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 162 161 160 160 159 160 160 159 158 158 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 77 78 80 82 85 85 79 74 71 73 75 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 10 7 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 14 19 14 14 15 18 33 56 79 95 104 92 200 MB DIV 61 71 89 96 93 71 49 71 109 86 144 125 131 700-850 TADV -3 -9 -7 -5 -2 -4 -1 16 14 12 7 4 2 LAND (KM) 133 80 29 -4 -27 -18 -6 6 22 44 46 33 13 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.6 16.3 16.1 16.1 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.7 97.2 97.8 98.3 99.2 99.7 100.0 99.9 99.7 99.3 99.0 99.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 37 44 58 65 49 15 14 56 49 59 64 67 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 14. 14. 10. 5. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/15/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 30% is 8.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/15/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##