* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/16/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 101 104 104 103 97 89 84 79 74 69 66 V (KT) LAND 90 73 57 46 39 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 90 77 60 47 39 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 13 8 5 10 19 12 7 11 14 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 1 -2 4 9 0 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 92 100 119 119 105 51 43 55 128 164 187 187 158 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 161 160 160 160 158 160 159 159 158 159 160 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -52.0 -52.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 7 8 6 9 7 9 7 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 76 79 81 82 80 81 79 75 71 69 70 73 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 22 19 19 15 23 39 64 87 95 82 70 200 MB DIV 74 84 78 85 88 62 63 66 93 90 115 52 60 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -4 0 -1 1 10 17 14 12 7 0 1 LAND (KM) 20 -18 -54 -55 -57 -42 -20 -4 -10 -32 -65 -61 -16 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.8 17.0 16.7 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.3 97.9 98.5 99.0 99.8 100.3 100.2 99.6 99.1 98.8 98.2 97.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 5 3 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 52 13 50 48 44 43 44 26 0 45 44 50 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 14. 14. 13. 7. -1. -6. -11. -16. -21. -24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/16/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 44% is 8.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 44% is 12.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/16/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##