* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/16/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 74 77 79 80 79 77 76 72 67 64 62 V (KT) LAND 70 55 45 39 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 55 45 38 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 10 4 10 15 19 12 4 18 17 20 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 0 0 0 2 5 11 3 9 5 6 SHEAR DIR 103 114 128 82 17 5 25 35 108 186 172 158 144 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 161 159 159 157 159 160 159 158 158 159 158 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 83 81 79 77 70 67 63 63 67 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 6 6 5 4 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 22 18 23 21 21 39 53 80 102 106 86 76 200 MB DIV 61 82 98 112 76 21 43 37 61 97 101 112 61 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 8 5 0 7 8 LAND (KM) -44 -43 -42 -57 -72 -85 -33 -2 -20 -33 -33 -46 -64 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 17.5 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.9 98.5 99.1 99.5 99.8 100.2 100.7 100.7 100.3 100.0 100.0 99.7 99.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 52 47 45 43 42 3 44 36 44 44 44 45 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 2. -3. -6. -8. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/16/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/16/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##