* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 2 10 15 20 15 10 5 20 18 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 8 7 4 3 7 -1 SHEAR DIR 106 133 356 350 7 15 7 336 295 220 177 169 156 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 157 157 156 154 156 157 156 156 156 155 155 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -52.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 9 8 10 8 11 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 78 80 79 77 79 75 70 64 60 63 67 73 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 16 23 21 19 30 45 75 92 103 101 94 89 200 MB DIV 69 88 85 53 18 19 35 45 51 82 106 140 70 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -2 -7 -3 0 0 0 -2 4 7 11 7 LAND (KM) -87 -98 -108 -108 -105 -95 -71 -59 -66 -82 -95 -108 -113 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.5 99.9 100.3 100.6 100.9 101.0 100.9 100.8 100.5 100.2 99.9 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 2 3 2 40 41 41 3 3 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -12. -20. -26. -30. -32. -33. -30. -26. -24. -24. -18. -11. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -18. -19. -17. -11. -4. 3. 3. 2. 7. 14. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -60.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/16/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##