* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/16/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 2 11 13 16 13 8 6 16 19 19 18 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 0 2 3 11 5 11 3 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 134 328 4 8 13 30 327 276 218 211 218 227 N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 155 155 155 154 156 156 156 154 152 148 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 79 79 73 68 65 63 60 58 56 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 28 26 20 16 39 61 97 127 143 132 102 N/A 200 MB DIV 83 82 62 32 34 42 49 58 78 86 63 36 N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -6 -2 0 4 4 6 7 4 2 -1 N/A LAND (KM) -111 -108 -105 -102 -100 -105 -100 -102 -95 -66 -76 29 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.0 17.9 18.0 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.8 18.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.6 99.9 100.2 100.2 100.1 100.2 100.1 100.5 100.9 102.0 102.8 104.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 2 4 4 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 49 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -9. -15. -20. -23. -25. -26. -24. -21. -19. -19. -14. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -10. -10. -6. -1. 4. 9. 9. 9. 14. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/16/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -45.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/16/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##