* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP032012 06/17/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 22 27 31 35 37 37 38 41 44 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 33 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 11 16 19 16 9 11 17 16 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 0 2 4 0 4 10 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 26 19 13 12 6 288 267 222 215 202 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 157 156 156 156 156 155 152 148 145 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -51.9 -52.5 -51.6 -52.1 -51.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 9 8 10 8 10 8 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 82 81 80 78 73 68 65 68 57 55 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 19 16 22 42 74 99 125 146 120 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 57 25 19 27 47 47 68 78 47 43 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 0 0 1 3 4 4 4 8 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -110 -89 -66 -64 -62 -68 -67 -60 -88 -76 19 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.0 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.3 18.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.5 100.8 100.9 101.0 100.9 101.2 101.6 102.4 103.4 104.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 5 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 41 41 41 41 39 3 0 0 44 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 21. 24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/17/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032012 CARLOTTA 06/17/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##