* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032012 06/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 45 50 53 54 55 53 48 43 37 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 45 50 53 54 55 53 48 43 37 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 42 43 45 47 48 48 49 50 51 53 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 21 14 19 11 9 5 14 17 24 15 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 0 -1 5 -1 -5 -6 -7 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 1 352 331 302 273 225 278 259 272 279 276 282 95 SST (C) 22.7 22.5 21.8 21.4 20.2 18.6 16.0 12.7 11.1 9.7 9.7 11.1 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 90 91 88 87 82 76 69 63 61 61 63 65 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 80 79 79 75 70 65 60 59 60 61 63 65 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.7 -56.7 -56.4 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -54.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 46 51 61 56 57 51 50 46 41 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 19 20 19 19 17 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 51 68 99 126 130 110 117 106 84 44 -4 200 MB DIV 0 -4 31 38 44 38 15 -10 0 -12 -20 -19 -13 700-850 TADV 5 1 8 10 2 -4 6 0 -3 -5 -8 -9 -3 LAND (KM) 788 871 877 854 876 866 749 669 595 567 612 709 939 LAT (DEG N) 38.9 38.9 38.8 39.2 39.6 41.5 44.0 45.0 45.0 45.6 46.5 47.9 49.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.8 55.0 53.2 50.8 48.4 45.0 44.3 44.8 45.8 45.9 44.9 43.3 40.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 16 19 17 13 8 4 3 4 7 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 21. 21. 19. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. -27. -30. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 14. 15. 13. 8. 3. -3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)