* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032012 06/20/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 47 50 57 59 60 61 59 54 46 39 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 47 50 57 59 60 61 59 54 46 39 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 46 48 49 50 50 51 51 50 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 22 16 23 16 12 8 15 7 7 14 19 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 3 4 2 -2 -6 -7 -6 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 323 315 301 272 265 244 250 219 223 289 291 283 54 SST (C) 22.1 21.6 21.4 20.5 19.6 18.8 16.3 14.3 14.8 14.4 13.6 12.1 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 89 87 87 84 80 76 69 64 65 63 64 65 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 79 78 77 73 69 64 61 61 59 61 63 64 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.8 -56.5 -56.0 -56.3 -56.0 -55.0 -54.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -54.0 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 47 49 52 55 60 61 60 53 47 45 36 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 19 19 23 21 20 20 18 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 40 57 71 104 113 137 136 138 172 132 90 61 37 200 MB DIV 4 29 42 46 60 41 11 18 -3 -17 -33 -35 -10 700-850 TADV -1 7 10 1 6 8 6 4 -10 -3 -3 -9 -13 LAND (KM) 936 923 935 922 949 911 773 694 674 654 645 659 743 LAT (DEG N) 38.3 38.4 38.5 39.2 39.9 42.1 44.1 44.4 43.6 43.5 44.1 45.3 47.4 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 52.6 50.5 48.3 46.0 43.6 43.9 44.8 45.7 46.1 45.7 44.8 42.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 19 16 11 6 4 3 1 5 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 17. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 17. 19. 20. 21. 19. 14. 6. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)