* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032012 06/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 54 57 61 62 64 66 63 58 50 43 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 54 57 61 62 64 66 63 58 50 43 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 50 50 51 51 51 52 53 53 52 51 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 25 17 15 5 12 13 6 6 9 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 1 3 4 0 -8 -6 -5 -4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 313 289 275 265 235 249 247 229 230 280 274 319 336 SST (C) 21.4 21.3 20.6 19.7 19.3 18.0 16.0 14.7 15.5 15.7 14.6 12.4 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 87 87 84 81 79 73 68 65 66 64 66 65 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 79 77 75 72 67 63 61 62 59 62 63 64 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.5 -56.1 -56.1 -56.5 -56.3 -55.3 -53.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 48 52 59 62 62 66 61 53 48 48 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 19 20 20 18 19 18 17 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 50 67 93 103 126 135 149 172 191 140 104 87 74 200 MB DIV 34 35 33 54 42 38 23 12 6 -19 -21 -23 -8 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 4 3 0 7 -5 -7 0 -3 -14 -9 LAND (KM) 957 961 1002 998 1033 959 789 706 700 693 668 654 701 LAT (DEG N) 38.1 38.4 38.6 39.6 40.6 43.0 44.4 44.3 43.4 43.1 43.7 45.0 47.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 50.0 47.7 45.6 43.4 42.1 43.5 44.7 45.5 45.9 45.7 45.0 43.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 19 15 9 6 4 4 1 5 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 18 CX,CY: 18/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 19. 17. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 17. 19. 21. 18. 13. 5. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)