* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032012 06/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 59 61 62 62 59 57 52 45 40 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 59 61 62 62 59 57 52 45 40 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 50 51 51 50 51 52 52 52 51 50 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 22 14 13 15 8 18 13 14 8 13 21 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 2 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -7 -5 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 290 263 264 218 244 258 241 226 208 219 255 249 225 SST (C) 21.3 20.6 20.0 19.4 18.4 16.3 14.6 15.2 17.5 18.1 17.5 15.9 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 87 84 82 80 76 69 66 67 71 69 70 69 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 77 75 74 70 65 62 63 65 63 64 65 64 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.3 -56.3 -56.2 -56.5 -55.1 -54.1 -52.5 -52.4 -53.1 -53.5 -54.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 49 54 56 58 63 60 54 45 40 42 40 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 23 22 21 20 19 17 16 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 71 96 110 128 113 100 131 173 159 121 92 62 47 200 MB DIV 35 36 62 51 29 15 8 -15 -13 -10 -29 -31 -24 700-850 TADV 6 3 1 3 9 8 1 -8 -5 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 973 998 1060 1024 1024 867 722 694 778 812 773 700 611 LAT (DEG N) 38.2 38.6 39.0 40.5 41.9 44.5 44.6 43.6 42.1 41.4 41.8 43.0 45.4 LONG(DEG W) 50.2 47.8 45.4 43.8 42.1 42.4 44.3 45.4 45.7 46.1 46.2 45.9 45.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 18 19 15 8 6 7 6 1 4 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 18 CX,CY: 18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. 15. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 17. 17. 14. 12. 7. 0. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032012 CHRIS 06/20/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)