* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032012 06/21/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 58 58 59 59 59 57 51 44 37 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 58 58 59 59 59 57 51 44 37 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 53 53 51 50 51 52 53 53 53 52 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 16 14 10 20 25 12 15 13 18 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 1 -4 -5 -6 -4 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 271 252 225 248 280 265 236 212 229 241 255 247 304 SST (C) 20.5 19.9 19.4 18.8 17.9 16.4 17.9 18.6 18.3 17.5 16.6 15.6 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 83 81 79 78 74 67 71 72 72 71 71 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 76 74 72 71 68 62 65 65 65 65 66 66 66 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -55.8 -56.1 -56.2 -56.1 -55.1 -54.6 -53.1 -51.8 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 54 57 60 56 66 59 56 52 57 57 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 20 21 19 19 19 18 18 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 97 113 127 125 113 125 184 227 232 218 168 129 104 200 MB DIV 38 49 46 40 27 20 25 25 31 15 -8 1 -3 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 3 2 9 9 -4 -7 -4 -3 -3 -16 LAND (KM) 1009 1028 1075 1007 966 841 820 891 992 1066 1142 1223 1357 LAT (DEG N) 38.6 39.3 40.0 41.5 43.0 44.4 43.1 42.3 42.3 42.6 43.6 45.5 48.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 45.5 43.5 42.8 42.0 42.8 44.0 43.7 42.2 40.9 39.2 37.1 34.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 16 11 4 6 4 5 6 10 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 20 CX,CY: 20/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 12. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 1. -6. -13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032012 CHRIS 06/21/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032012 CHRIS 06/21/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032012 CHRIS 06/21/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)