* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032012 06/21/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 60 61 62 60 61 60 55 49 45 41 38 V (KT) LAND 60 61 60 61 62 60 61 60 55 49 45 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 58 56 55 53 53 53 53 52 51 50 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 14 16 16 13 11 14 23 22 7 7 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -3 -6 -5 -4 -6 -1 -1 2 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 255 269 279 259 239 242 238 257 261 258 275 271 N/A SST (C) 18.8 18.2 17.2 16.9 15.8 16.2 17.9 18.4 18.2 17.2 14.1 13.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 74 70 70 67 68 70 70 72 72 69 68 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 68 64 64 63 63 64 62 65 66 65 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.8 -55.8 -55.3 -54.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -52.3 -51.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 58 58 64 59 53 50 47 45 45 41 36 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 18 19 20 17 17 17 15 14 14 15 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 131 138 133 139 147 195 196 143 109 94 95 101 N/A 200 MB DIV 35 25 19 16 43 20 12 -8 -27 -19 -27 -19 N/A 700-850 TADV 16 6 10 8 0 -10 -4 -7 -7 0 1 2 N/A LAND (KM) 970 922 885 814 744 726 806 849 838 813 815 895 N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.9 42.9 43.9 44.0 44.1 43.2 42.3 41.8 42.4 43.6 45.9 48.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.9 42.7 42.5 43.4 44.3 45.3 45.0 44.9 44.4 43.7 42.4 40.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 6 7 5 5 4 1 5 10 14 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 16 CX,CY: 11/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -21. -25. -28. -30. -31. -32. -32. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. 0. -5. -11. -15. -19. -22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032012 CHRIS 06/21/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032012 CHRIS 06/21/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032012 CHRIS 06/21/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)