* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032012 06/22/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 50 50 51 51 51 49 47 43 41 39 V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 50 50 51 51 51 49 47 43 41 39 V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 50 49 49 50 52 54 55 54 53 DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 17 16 16 12 9 13 16 12 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -6 -5 -3 -6 -3 0 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 267 250 246 241 230 261 258 254 290 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 18.0 17.4 16.0 15.9 15.9 18.2 18.8 18.7 17.9 15.0 14.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 73 71 67 67 67 72 71 73 73 70 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 67 65 63 63 62 65 63 66 67 66 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -53.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -50.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 64 61 57 54 46 45 45 51 45 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 17 18 19 20 19 17 15 14 14 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 135 141 155 173 212 175 149 125 109 114 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 15 8 41 22 12 -12 -6 -23 -13 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 5 11 3 3 -5 0 -2 -1 7 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 898 822 747 729 713 833 889 891 886 892 968 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.2 43.6 43.9 43.6 43.3 42.2 41.6 42.2 43.3 45.6 48.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.8 43.6 44.4 44.9 45.4 44.7 44.5 43.8 42.9 41.5 39.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 5 4 5 1 5 10 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 14 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -22. -24. -25. -25. -26. -26. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032012 CHRIS 06/22/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032012 CHRIS 06/22/12 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032012 CHRIS 06/22/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED