* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032012 06/22/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 47 47 47 46 44 43 41 39 39 38 37 V (KT) LAND 50 47 47 47 47 46 44 43 41 39 39 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 46 46 47 48 47 46 46 46 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 13 13 13 10 17 23 18 13 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -6 -5 -4 -8 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 253 252 248 271 269 282 270 253 350 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 15.8 15.2 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.6 16.1 13.8 9.2 6.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 68 66 67 69 69 68 66 66 64 64 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 64 62 63 65 64 62 62 62 63 63 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -54.3 -52.7 -51.8 -52.8 -53.5 -54.5 -54.1 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 65 61 56 54 45 41 41 46 43 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 18 17 16 15 15 14 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 114 133 153 189 208 144 88 59 57 37 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 16 45 20 11 -19 -28 -25 -11 -32 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 8 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 2 12 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 774 730 687 690 708 707 669 582 465 453 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.4 44.3 44.1 43.3 42.4 41.7 41.8 42.6 44.5 46.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.7 44.4 45.1 45.8 46.5 47.6 48.2 48.5 48.0 46.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 7 10 8 3 3 7 11 13 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. -22. -22. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -29. -32. -36. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032012 CHRIS 06/22/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032012 CHRIS 06/22/12 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032012 CHRIS 06/22/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED