* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032012 06/22/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 42 41 41 43 44 44 42 41 42 42 40 V (KT) LAND 45 42 42 41 41 43 44 44 42 41 42 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 41 41 42 44 47 50 51 52 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 13 14 13 16 16 10 12 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -5 -5 -4 -6 -2 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 264 256 258 248 238 252 259 302 314 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 12.1 12.4 12.7 14.8 16.7 17.9 18.0 17.1 14.1 13.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 64 63 64 67 69 70 71 72 69 69 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 61 60 61 63 63 63 65 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 55 55 51 45 45 42 45 40 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 19 18 18 17 17 15 14 15 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 138 159 176 183 152 126 102 95 84 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 42 21 16 0 -24 -10 -28 -18 -15 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -3 -11 -9 -5 -3 -2 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 625 613 604 670 739 806 825 836 855 959 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.8 44.5 44.1 43.5 42.8 42.3 42.8 44.0 46.3 49.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.5 45.9 46.3 45.9 45.5 45.0 44.2 43.1 41.7 39.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 7 5 3 5 10 14 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. -15. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032012 CHRIS 06/22/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032012 CHRIS 06/22/12 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032012 CHRIS 06/22/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED