* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/23/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 55 56 56 54 51 47 44 40 34 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 55 56 56 54 51 47 44 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 50 52 53 52 52 51 48 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 14 18 18 24 25 35 31 33 24 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 0 0 2 -2 -6 -1 0 1 7 1 SHEAR DIR 263 222 212 212 212 222 216 231 240 255 251 269 281 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 139 138 136 138 140 141 141 141 140 140 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 117 114 112 115 116 117 118 118 117 116 117 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 8 11 11 12 7 10 7 12 700-500 MB RH 69 68 60 60 60 50 47 35 32 24 22 21 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 19 22 22 20 20 17 16 16 17 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 72 66 42 57 75 92 77 61 67 48 4 -64 -57 200 MB DIV 64 98 90 102 99 26 23 10 -11 -25 -17 -8 7 700-850 TADV 9 7 2 5 8 -1 1 2 -2 -5 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 383 328 275 259 242 227 197 189 202 200 189 192 204 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 63 50 39 36 33 30 23 21 23 23 20 17 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 16. 16. 14. 11. 7. 4. 0. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/23/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042012 DEBBY 06/23/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/23/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)